Stern study dispels deglobalization talk

Stern researchers found that despite a projected decline in globalization and slowed U.S. trade growth, most countries have yet to make significant changes to their trading patterns amid a slew of tariffs from President Donald Trump. 

The business school’s findings were part of its DHL Initiative on Globalization, a collaboration between international logistics company DHL and the Stern School of Business’s Center for the Future of Management. The tracker is updated as new information comes out and typically releases a report in late November, although this edition was around one month early in response to Trump’s tariff push.

Evaluating more than 20 million data points, researchers predicted in 2024 that global trade volume would increase by 3.1% between 2025 and 2029, but their expectation slumped to 2.5% after Trump announced plans to scale tariffs. Trade growth projections from January to September fell slightly across nearly all countries — other than those in Central and South America, as well as in the Middle East and North Africa region. North America’s projected growth saw the sharpest decline, dropping from 2.7% to 1.5%. 

“In an environment where discussions around globalization are often shaped more by sentiment than substance, our joint commitment to empirical evidence is crucial,” Sabine Hartmann, DHL spokesperson said in a statement to WSN. “Facts — not feelings — must form the foundation of effective trade and policy decisions.”

While many countries were minimally affected by shifting trade policy overall, the tracker emphasized an accelerating drop in trade ties between the United States and China. U.S. imports from China fell from 13% in 2024 to 9% in the last seven months, while China has substantially retreated from exporting to the United States — instead redirecting focus toward exporting products to Southeast Asian and European markets, offsetting the decline with a 15% increase.

“Nonetheless, falling U.S.-China trade is not indicative of a global pullback from trade,” Caroline Bastian, a researcher at NYU Stern’s DHL Initiative on Globalization said. “Global trade volumes are still expected to grow as fast over the next five years as they did during the past decade.”

The report in fact found that U.S. global trade grew faster than in any half-year since 2010, with the exception of a brief spell during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was largely attributed to people preemptively frontloading purchases and U.S. imports have been on the decline since June, but most other countries have been minimally impacted. DHL’s Global Connectedness Index — which measures globalization based on trade and information flow, among 12 other metrics — reached a record high in 2022 and has remained steady since.

Since taking office in January, Trump has made efforts to limit trade with China by issuing several rounds of tariffs of up to 145%, targeting key commodities such as rare minerals, pharmaceuticals and energy products. Earlier this month, the United States announced that it will reduce the cumulative tariff rate in place to pressure China into mitigating fentanyl trafficking, from 20% to 10% — a policy that will take effect Monday, Nov. 10. 

In an email statement to WSN, Steven Altman, who directs Stern’s DHL initiative, said the project aims to dispel misconceptions that globalization is reversing and countries increasingly are decoupled from international trade. He said the tracker analyzes tangible, geographical trade patterns to capture real-time effects of policy changes, distinguishing it from other publications that focus on macro-level consumer preferences. 

“Globalization can be a controversial topic, and research shows that people often have misperceptions about it,” Altman said. “So, we want to make it as easy as possible for people to find accurate and timely data about levels and patterns of globalization.”

Contact Fiona Clifford-Fotopoulos at news@nyunews.com.

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Stern researchers found that despite a projected decline in globalization and slowed U.S. trade growth, most countries have yet to make significant changes to their trading patterns amid a slew of tariffs from President Donald Trump.  The business school’s findings were part of its DHL Initiative on Globalization, a collaboration between international logistics company DHL…